Law and order has always been a major concern for citizens and incidents of murder is one of the key indicators reflecting the state of affairs.

What do you think: In the last two decades, have murders increased or have they shown a declining trend? Has India become more violent or more safe?

Let’s test your perception: according to you, which line in the following chart captures the trend of murder rate in India from 1995 to 2015? Rate means the number of murders per lakh population. Make a guess.

Murder rate figures (murders per lakh population) for 64 years (1952 to 2015) from NCRB was compiled by the Clio Infra Project and The Hindu. Data show that the rate has declined from 4.6 in 1992, the peak year of violence (in terms of murder rate) to 2.6 in 2015. After a steady rise from 2.7 in 1952 to the highest rate witnessed in the early nineties—with murder rate staying between three to four murders per lakh population in the eighties—we are back to square one.

Note that NCRB numbers are based on FIRs alone. Crimes for which FIRs are not registered are not accounted for in the official data. But unlike other crimes, data for murders is understood to be closer to the reality. This is because there is little incentive and possibility to under report murder cases. Plus, as compared to other crimes, it is less likely to pass unnoticed. To be sure, let's look at data from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC), which pegs the Indian murder rate higher than that of NCRB, after adjusting it for various factors. The broader trend remains the same— murder rate has slumped from 4.3 in 1995 to 3.3 in 2013.

Among mega cities, Patna turns out to be the least safe, having a murder rate of 11.3—four times that of national average—in 2015. Meerut, Ludhiana, Faridabad and Agra come next. Kolkata, Kochi and Mumbai happened to be the safest, all having the rate less than one murder per lakh population.

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Absolute numbers, however, are still high—32,127 murders were recorded in 2015, which means 88 people were killed every day. In fact, murders in 2015 alone were almost similar in number to terrorism-related fatalities in India over the last decades. As per data from South Asia Terrorism Portal—which compiles figures from news reports and is likely to be an underestimate—34,691 civilians and security personnel were killed in terrorist attacks in India from 1994 to 2016.

The incidents of murder have not changed much. Between 2006 and 2015, the figure was between 32,000 and 35,000. In the decade before, 1996-2005, recorded murder incidents were between 32,000 and 38,000. As per NCRB data from 1952-2015, 1992 saw the maximum number of deaths due to murder in one calendar year—40,105.

Further, data from UNODC reveals that the murder rate for India in 2012 (3.5) was almost half compared to the world average (6.2). Among 209 countries for which comparable data was available, India ranked 133 (higher rank means higher murder rate). The Central American country Honduras had the highest rate—91 murders per lakh population.

In 2015, the major motive of murder was ‘Personal vendetta or enmity’ (4,758 cases), accounting for 14.8 per cent of the total murder cases followed by ‘property dispute’ with 3,540 cases (11.0 per cent). The same were the major reasons in 1992 as well, the most violent year if murder is taken as a yardstick.

Guess the trend

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